Dropout Analysis in Davao Oriental State University

Authors

  • Jocelyn Cabrera Davao Oriental State University
  • Saturnino E. Dalagan Davao Oriental State University
  • Maria Gloria R. Lugo Davao Oriental State University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.55927/eajmr.v4i4.116

Keywords:

Student Dropout, Academic Performance, Higher Education, Binary Logistic Regression

Abstract

Student dropout remains a critical challenge in higher education, affecting institutional efficiency and student success. This study aims to determine the key predictors of student dropout at Davao Oriental State University (DorSU) through a longitudinal cohort analysis. The research examines undergraduate students who enrolled at the DOrSU Main Campus, San Isidro, Banaybanay, and Cateel campus during the 2019-2020 academic year. Using Binary Logistic Regression within a longitudinal framework, the study evaluates the influence of SUAST scores, Senior High School (SHS) grades, SHS strand, and General Weighted Average (GWA) on student attrition. Findings reveal that GWA is the most significant predictor of dropout (B = 3.023, p < 0.001, Exp(B) = 20.562), indicating that students with lower academic performance face a substantially higher risk of leaving the university. In contrast, entrance exam scores and SHS grades were not statistically significant predictors. These results emphasize the need for academic interventions and support programs to improve student retention and reduce dropout rates.

References

Al Hazaa, K., Abdel-Salam, A. S. G., Ismail, R., Johnson, C., Al-Tameemi, R. A. N., Romanowski, M. H., BenSaid, A., Rhouma, M. B. H., & Elatawneh, A. (2021). The effects of attendance and high school GPA on student performance in first-year undergraduate courses. Cogent Education, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/2331186X.2021.1956857

Allensworth, E. M., & Clark, K. (2020). High School GPAs and ACT Scores as Predictors of College Completion: Examining Assumptions About Consistency Across High Schools. Educational Researcher, 49(3), 198–211. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X20902110

Ameri, S., Fard, M. J., Chinnam, R. B., & Reddy, C. K. (2016a). Survival analysis based framework for early prediction of student dropouts. International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, Proceedings, 24-28-October-2016, 903–912. https://doi.org/10.1145/2983323.2983351

Ameri, S., Fard, M. J., Chinnam, R. B., & Reddy, C. K. (2016b). Survival analysis based framework for early prediction of student dropouts. International Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, Proceedings, 24-28-Octo, 903–912. https://doi.org/10.1145/2983323.2983351

B. Manugas, S., T. Pepito, M., S. Fernandez, J. J., & A.Canque, M. (2022). Senior High School Tract as Determinant for College GPA: A Correlational Study. International Journal of Science and Management Studies (IJSMS), June, 230–234. https://doi.org/10.51386/25815946/ijsms-v5i3p126

Blanchet, R., John, S., & College, F. (2016). Predicting First-Semester College Student Success at a Small Technology College How has open access to Fisher Digital Publications benefited you ? Predicting First-Semester College Student Success at a Small Technology.

Board, C., Westrick, P. A., Marini, J. P., Young, L., Ng, H., & Shaw, E. J. (2023). The Consequences of a Low First-Year Grade Point Average on Later College Outcomes. College Board. https://ezproxy.msu.edu/login?url=https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=eric&AN=ED630895&site=ehost-live&scope=site

Buenaño, E., Beletanga, M. J., & Mancheno, M. (2023). What Factors are Relevant to Understanding Dropout? Analysis at a Co-Financed University in Ecuador and Policy Implications, Using Survival Cox Models. Journal of Latinos and Education, 23(4), 1400–1415. https://doi.org/10.1080/15348431.2023.2271570

Busch, V., Loyen, A., Lodder, M., Schrijvers, A. J. P., van Yperen, T. A., & de Leeuw, J. R. J. (2014). The Effects of Adolescent Health-Related Behavior on Academic Performance: A Systematic Review of the Longitudinal Evidence. Review of Educational Research, 84(2), 245–274. https://doi.org/10.3102/0034654313518441

Casuso-Holgado, M. J., Cuesta-Vargas, A. I., Moreno-Morales, N., Labajos-Manzanares, M. T., Barón-López, F. J., & Vega-Cuesta, M. (2013). The association between academic engagement and achievement in health sciences students. BMC Medical Education, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6920-13-33

Çerkini, B., Zejnullahu, F., & Bajraktari, A. (2023). Analysis of the Factor’s Student Dropout in the Faculty of Engineering and Informatics at UASF from 2016 to 2023. Migration Letters, 20(8), 1251–1224. https://migrationletters.com/index.php/ml/article/view/5956

Choudhary AI, L. A. (2015). Economic Effects of Student Dropouts: A Comparative Study. Journal of Global Economics, 03(02), 2–5. https://doi.org/10.4172/2375-4389.1000137

Denning, J. T., Eide, E. R., Mumford, K. J., Patterson, R. W., & Warnick, M. (2022). Why Have College Completion Rates Increased?†. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14(3), 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20200525

Faizuddin, M., & Noor, M. (2023). Factors In fl uencing Dropout Students in Higher Education. 2023. https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7704142

Garrido Silva, C. A., & Pajuelo Diaz, J. (2023). Dropout among students in higher education: a case study. Universidad Ciencia y Tecnología, 27(119), 18–28. https://doi.org/10.47460/uct.v27i119.703

Guzmán, A., Barragán, S., & Cala Vitery, F. (2021). Dropout in Rural Higher Education: A Systematic Review. Frontiers in Education, 6(September), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.3389/feduc.2021.727833

Huang, Y., Huang, M., Wang, H., Chen, Z., & Liu, X. (2023). Do college entrance examination admission characteristics influence students’ college satisfaction? Evidence from China. Frontiers in Psychology, 14(March). https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1115867

Maruyama, G., Ovies-Bocanegra, M. A., Do, T., Peczuh, M. C., & Weisen, S. (2024). How much do we need college admission tests? Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy, July, 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1111/asap.12417

Nurmalitasari, Awang Long, Z., & Faizuddin Mohd Noor, M. (2023). Factors Influencing Dropout Students in Higher Education. Education Research International, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/7704142

Perez, K. L., & Rioja, C. M. B. (2020). Influence of Senior High School Strand on the Academic Performance of Accountancy Students. 1(12), 161–172. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14492570

Rubas, J. (2023). College academic performance in science-related programs and senior high school strands: A basis for higher education admission policy. Education Mind, 2(1), 35–44. https://doi.org/10.58583/pedapub.em2303

Sandoval-Palis, I., Naranjo, D., Vidal, J., & Gilar-Corbi, R. (2020). Early dropout prediction model: A case study of university leveling course students. Sustainability (Switzerland), 12(22), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12229314

Shedriko, S. (2021). Binary Logistic Regression in Determining Affecting Factors Student Graduation in a Subject. Jurnal Teknologi Dan Open Source, 4(1), 114–120. https://doi.org/10.36378/jtos.v4i1.1401

Song, Z., Sung, S. H., Park, D. M., & Park, B. K. (2023). All-Year Dropout Prediction Modeling and Analysis for University Students. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 13(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/app13021143

Stewart, B. S., Lim, D. H., & Kim, J. (2007). ac.els-cdn.com_S1072751505000037_1-s2.0-S1072751505000037-main.pdf. 1999.

Teague, S., Youssef, G. J., Macdonald, J. A., Sciberras, E., Shatte, A., Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, M., Greenwood, C., McIntosh, J., Olsson, C. A., & Hutchinson, D. (2018). Retention strategies in longitudinal cohort studies: A systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 18(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-018-0586-7

Tesema, M. T. (2013). The validity of University Entrance Examination and High school Grade point average for predicting first year university students’ academic performance. 1–52.

The Danish Evaluation Institute. (2017). The significance of study start for dropout rates in higher education. 2006, 1–7. https://www.eva.dk/sites/eva/files/2017-08/The significance of study start for dropout rates in higher education - summary.pdf

Véliz Palomino, J. C., & Ortega, A. M. (2023). Dropout Intentions in Higher Education: Systematic Literature Review. Journal on Efficiency and Responsibility in Education and Science, 16(2), 149–158. https://doi.org/10.7160/eriesj.2023.160206

Willging, P. A., & Johnson, S. D. (n.d.). Factors that Influence Students’ Decision to Dropout of Online Courses. In Journal of Asynchronous Learning Networks (Vol. 13).

Xavier, M., Meneses, J., & Fiuza, P. J. (2022). Dropout, stopout, and time challenges in open online higher education: A qualitative study of the first-year student experience. Open Learning, 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1080/02680513.2022.2160236

Downloads

Published

2025-04-29

Issue

Section

Articles